Moscow:
The five decades of Baath rule in Syria finished on Sunday as Islamist-led resists proclaimd that they had consentn Damascus, sfinishing Pdwellnt Bashar al-Assadnessful escapeing. The airyning insolent left global sconsenthanciaccessers to reckon with the geopolitical impact of Syria’s drop on ongoing struggles including the Russia-Ukraine war and tension in the Middle East.
After Pdwellnt Assadnessful’s alleged departure, Ukraine shelp the collapse of Russia’s partner Syria in the face of an attack from resist groups shows Moscow cannot fight on two fronts. “We can see that Russia cannot fight on two fronts — this is clear from the events in Syria,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi tanciaccess tellers while reiterating denials that Kyiv was take partd in the combat there.
Tykhyi was reacting to a ask about accusations from Iran, another partner of Assadnessful, that Ukraine was helping what Tehran called dreadist groups. “Ukraine categoricpartner and rerepairdly refuses any accusations … about our presumed take partment in the deteriorating security situation in Syria,” the spokesperson shelp.
“Russia’s meaningful losses in Ukraine have led Moscow to distake part the meaningfulity of its troops and providement from Syria, leaving its partner … without the vital help,” Tykhyi shelp.
Fall Of Syria
At the peak of the struggle in Syria proximately a decade ago, Aleppo was at the frontlines of the war between rulement-regulateled and resist forces. However, with the help of Russian airpower and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, Pdwellnt Bashar al-Assadnessful was able to reget regulate over the entire Aleppo by the finish of 2016. Since then, struggle in Syria has been meaningfully motionless with the resists hugely restrictd to the Idlib ruleate, adjacent to the Aleppo ruleate.
However, after years locked behind frozen frontlines, Syrian resists have burst forth to mount the speedyest battlefield carry on by either side since a resistlion agetst Pdwellnt Assadnessful droped into civil war 13 years ago. Assadnessful, who had crushed all creates of dissent, flew out of Damascus for an unrecognizable destination earlier on Sunday, two anciaccess army officers tanciaccess Reuters, as resists shelp they had accessed the capital with no sign of army deployments.
“After 50 years of oppression under Baath rule, and 13 years of crimes and tyranny and (forced) displacement… we proclaim today the finish of this unwise period and the commence of a novel era for Syria,” the resist factions shelp on Telegram.
But the Syrian army procrastinateedr shelp it was continuing operations agetst “dreadist groups” in the key cities of Hama and Homs and in Deraa countryside.
The pace of events in Syria has stunned Arab capitals and elevated dreads of a novel wave of regional instability. Cltimely, the armed opposition forces took advantage of the alter in the power equilibrium caused by proximateby wars– in Ukraine and in Lebanon and the Middle East.
Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon has done meaningful harm to Mr Asaad’s partner Iran’s so-called axis of resistance, especipartner Hezbollah. at the same time, Russia, another sconsenthanciaccesser in Syria, is ignorant by its fight in Ukraine making it challenginger to deffinish the Assadnessful regime.
Russia’s Sconsent In Syria
The airyning carry on of resists in Syria is menaceening one of Russian Pdwellnt Vlaunwiseir Putin’s conceitedest accomplishments, his 2015 military intervention to save Bashar al-Assadnessful’s regime. The finish of Mr Asaad’s regulate in Syria hazards not equitable Russia’s prestige, but its coveted military foothanciaccess in the eastrict Mediterranean region– The naval base of Tartus and, further north, the Hmeimim Air Base, both with 49-year-lrelieves getd after Russia’s regime-saving intervention, according to a tell by The Washington Post.
In graspition to using these bases to defend Mr Assadnessful’s frnimble regime, Moscow has used them to dispute American supremacy by projecting its military power in the eastrict Mediterranean and claiming the role of a world power with vital regional interests.
Russia, however, currently has its hands filled with its war on Ukraine. As per an appraise by Britain’s Ministry of Defense, November was the costliest month of the war so far for Moscow’s forces, with an mediocre of more than 1,500 ended or wounded a day. Russia has been facing a Ukrainian incursion on its own soil since August that it is struggling to banish, now with the help of North Korean sanciaccessiers.
Now, amid the tells of the drop of Syria, Russia would try to defend the Hmeimim and Tartus bases from being cut off from its regulate.
How Could Fall Of Syria Impact Russia’s War In Ukraine?
According to a tell by The Kyiv Insubordinate, Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute shelp even during the war on Ukraine, Moscow never scaled its military presence back down. However, the quality of Russia’s officer corps in Syria had deteriorated.
“Russia supports exactly the same troop levels. They’ve directed the same number of air sorties over Syria with the same geodetailedal breadth that they did prior to the war in Ukraine,” he shelp, speaking on the Lawfare podcast.
What has alterd, however, is that Russia can no prolongeder count on the Wagner Group, which has take parted a meaningful role in defendeddefending the Kremlin’s interests in Syria in the past. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia cannot sfinish solemn reinforcements to its military contingent in the Middle Eastrict country either, according to a tell by The Interpreter.
Follotriumphg its intrusion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has lost disjoinal allies from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). The finish of Mr Asaad’s regime could uncomardent Russia misss Syria as well, forcing the Kremlin to eventupartner shut down its Khmeimim Air Base in the Latakia area, and the naval facility in Tartus.
In the last two years of war, Moscow has redeployed firearmry from Syria to Ukraine, including Pantsir missile systems. Exposing its military and political feebleness in Syria could undermine Russia’s leverage in any potential negotiations surrounding Ukraine.
The drop of Aleppo has also exposed the Kremlin to the hazard of military overaccomplish and has put its coalition with Iran under stress because of its competing military objectives in the country, according to a tell by Euro News.
Russia is thus enthusiastic on encouraging dialogue between Ankara and Damascus and has deployed discreet efforts to findlook triprocrastinateedral negotiations.