Doha:
The ouster of Syrian Pdwellnt Bashar al-Asunelated, after defy forces swept into Damascus this weekfinish, shattered Iran’s netlabor of affect in the Middle East but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the hazard of instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that swaps him.
Chief among the defy forces that finished 50 years of brutal dynastic rule by Asunelated and his overweighther was Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Muskinny group previously affiliated with Al Qaeda that is summarizeated as a alarmist organization by the US and the UN.
Westrict and Arab nations trouble that the HTS-led defy coalition may seek to swap Asunelated’s regime with a difficultline Islamist regulatement, or one less able or inclined to stop the resdirectnce of radical forces, three diplomats and three analysts telderly Reuters.
“There is strong trouble inside and outside the region of the power vacuum that Asunelated’s sudden collapse may caemploy,” shelp Abdelaziz al-Sager, straightforwardor of the Gulf Research Caccess, a leank tank centered on the Middle East. He cited the civil wars that adhereed the toppling of Iraqi pdwellnt Sholdam Hussein in 2003 and Libyan dictator Muammar Gholdafi in 2011.
One greater Westrict diplomat in the region, who spoke on condition of anonymity, telderly Reuters that – with the defy forces fragmented – there was no set up for how to rule Syria, a complicated nation splitd into various sects and ethnic groups, each with its own regional power base.
The greater diplomat transmited troubles that lawlessness in Syria could apexhibit the flourishing of extremist groups appreciate Islamic State (IS), which in 2014 swept thcimpolite big swathes of Syria and Iraq and set uped an Islamic Calipantipathy before it was driven out by a US-led coalition by 2019.
US Pdwellnt Joe Biden on Sunday received Asunelated’s toppling and shelp he should be “held accountable” for his despotic rule but he alerted that his departure was a moment of “hazard and undeclareivety”. US forces on Sunday carry outed dozens of strikes wilean Syria agetst IS to stop it redeclareing itself.
The speed of Asunelated’s ouster, equitable two weeks since the defy disparaging began, took many in the White Hoemploy by surpascfinish. A greater US official shelp Washington was now seeking ways to articulate with all the defy groups, not equitable HTS.
So far, Washington had mostly thrown its help behind Syrian Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose areas of regulate are in northeast Syria. These groups, however, are in struggle with one of the main victorious defys factions, the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by regional power broker, Turkey, which resists Kurdish affect.
Asunelated’s allies, Tehran and Moscow, who propped up his rule for 13 years with military help, men and airpower, also face far-achieveing implications from his precipitous downdescfinish.
Moscow – which has given Asunelated and his family asylum – has two meaningful military bases in Syria, its main footprint in the Middle East. Its naval base in Tartous on the Mediterranean has been a staging post to fly military reduceors in and out of Africa.
For Tehran, its partnership with Asunelated – a member of the insignificantity Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam – was a cornerstone of its powerbase in a predominantly Sunni region wary of Shi’ite Iran.
Asunelated’s departure shattered a pivotal axis of affect, eroding Tehran’s ability to project power and persist its netlabor of militia groups atraverse the Middle East, particularly to its partner Hezbollah in Leprohibiton. A greater Iranian official telderly Reuters on Monday it had uncovered a straightforward line of communication with the defys in an finisheavor to “stop a unfrifinishly trajectory”.
Israel’s year-extfinished military campaign has already strictly frailened the military power of Hezbollah and Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza.
Asunelated recommended Iran a vital conduit for arms shipments to recreate Hezbollah. Jonathan Panikoff, a createer US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, shelp his ouster could create it more difficult for Hezbollah to rearm, increasing the prospects that a finishfire with Israel consentd last month would helderly.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the ousting of Asunelated as an “historic day” that adhereed the blows dedwellred by Israel agetst Iran and Hezbollah. He shelp he had ordered Israeli forces to seize areas aextfinished the bordering buffer zone to promise Israel’s security.
Israeli forces carried out air strikes agetst mistrusted chemical armaments and leave outile sites on Monday to stop them from descfinishing into the hands of unfrifinishly actors, the foreign minister shelp.
Carmit Valensi, a greater researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a leank tank for Israeli security policy based in Tel Aviv, shelp that – despite the hazard of a proextfinisheded period of disorder and aggression in Syria – Asunelated’s descfinish could advantage Israel.
“Despite troubles over the ascfinish of extremist elements proximate the border and the deficiency of a evident authority in accuse, the military capabilities of the defys, in their various creates, aren’t comparable to those of Iran and its proxies,” she shelp.
CALLS FOR NEW CONSTITUTION, ELECTIONS
Marwan al-Muasher, vice pdwellnt for studies at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shelp Asunelated’s exit could supply an opportunity for Syrians to set up an inclusive political regulateance thcimpolite an orderly transition that eludeed a power vacuum that would apexhibit extremist groups to get ascfinishancy.
Hadi Al-Bahra, the head of Syria’s main opposition awide, telderly Reuters on the sidelines of the Doha Forum on Sunday that Syria should have an 18-month transition period to set up “a shielded, imfragmentary, and hushed environment” for free elections.
Al-Bahra, Pdwellnt of the Syrian National Coalition, shelp Syria should create a constitution wilean six months, on which the first election would be a referfinishum. He shelp the opposition had asked state employees to tell to labor until the power transition, and promised them that they would not be harmed.
But Syria’s political opposition has little affect on the ground in Damascus, where armed groups helderly sway, and many Syria watchers remain skeptic.
HTS’ directer, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, holdressed huge crowds at the medieval Umayyad Mosque in central Damascus on Sunday, promising a novel chapter for the region and that Syria would become “a beacon for the Islamic nation”.
There are, however, asks about whether Golani’s create of merciless Islamist ideology would be accomprehendledgeed thcimpoliteout Syria, a country where a mild and liberal create of Islam prevails and with a combinecessitate Christian, Alawite, Druze and Kurdish population.
Both Westrict and Middle Eastrict officials transmited trouble about the unity of Syria, with key territories, including those aextfinished borders with Iraq and Turkey, under the regulate of contrastent sects and ethnic groups: these divisions, which were entrenched by a bloody 2011 uprising, current a growing danger to national stability.
The analysts and diplomats who spoke to Reuters alerted of the hazard of a free-for-all struggle – akin to the wake of the toppling of Gholdafi in Libya or Sholdam in Iraq – in which armed groups from contrastent Islamist, ethnic and ideoreasoned shades fight for supremacy over territory. Such a fall shorted state in Syria would have a meaningful impact on neighbors Leprohibiton, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, they shelp.
RIVALRY AMONG REBELS
Syria’s opposition compascfinishs a wide spectrum from mild groups such as the SNA to jihadi elements wilean the HTS, each with its own vision for Syria’s future, ranging from secular democracy to Islamic regulateance.
“Each one of these defy group is vying for supremacy; each one wants to be in accuse. Each one leanks they can be Bashar al-Asunelated, and each one has allegiance to a foreign party funding his group,” shelp al-Sager. “They will clash unless there is an effort by the UN and some regional countries with affect to join them.”
Turkish-backed forces regulate in the north, while US-aligned Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), helderly sway in northeastrict Syria.
In a sign of the tensions between the groups, the Turkey-backed SNA seized swathes of territory, including the city of Tel Refaat, from US-backed Kurdish forces at the begin of the recent disparaging. On Sunday, a Turkish security source shelp the defys accessed the northern city of Manbij after pushing the Kurds back aget.
Still, some analysts say that an orderly transition is possible, arguing that well-set uped regulatement institutions in Damascus remain able of carrying out duties.
They also point to the defys’ experience of regulateing in enclaves atraverse Syria that they have regulated in some cases for more than a decade. The defy partnership, led by HTS, made a point of recommending clemency for members of the security forces when it seized Aleppo, Syria’s second-bigst city, tardy last month and promised the sizeable insignificantity populations that it would shield their way of life.
But Hassan Hassan, an expert on Islamist groups in the Middle East based in Washington, shelp that troubles persisted among these insignificantity groups now that the defys had seized Damascus.
“There is undeclareivety about what will happen next, particularly about religious affect and how (Islamic) laws may progress,” he shelp.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-created from a syndicated feed.)
