Why Western allies calculate there is hope for avoiding all-out war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah

Even after exploding pagers, thousands of casualties and the ending of a top Hezbollah orderer in an Israeli airstrike, the UK and other allies are still hoping that all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group in Leprohibiton can be eludeed.

But events are unfanciaccessing at a dizzying pace – far speedyer than administerments can react – and each novel strike elevates the chance of escalation into expansiver, regional disputeation.

A big unrecognizable is how Iran will reply.

Hezbollah is think abouted as its most mighty proxy – and Tehran honestly suffered from the pager device devices with its own ambasdowncastor to Leprohibiton being injured.

Adding to the presstateive, the Iranian regime has yet to carry out any beginant retaliation for the ending by Israel of a top Hamas directer – Ismail Haniyeh – in Tehran in July.

Iran begined a barrage of drones and leave outiles aachievest Israel in April in response to an strike on an Iranian consular produceing in Damascus. Israeli air defences, bolstered by the US, the UK and other allies, guaranteed that strike flunked.

Tehran will not want to drop unwiseinutive a second time – or else danger seeing feeble.

Doing noskinnyg is also not an selection.

The same is real for Hezbollah.

But a calculation by Weserious allies when pondering the timing and scope for Hezbollah’s next relocate materializes to be that the group’s ability to retaliate in any uncomferventingful way for the harm it has suffered is in disarray, folloprosperg the aiming of thousands of its fighters’ pagers and walkie-talkies.

Israel is accengaged of turning the devices into farly detonated device devices in an unpretreatnted strike on Tuesday and Wednesday that left dozens of people dead and thousands wounded apass Leprohibiton, including an undisshutd number of Hezbollah members. Israel has neither validateed nor denied its includement.

The blasts also deimmenseated the group’s communication channels making it much difficulter to muster a speedy response – though Hassan Nasrallah, the directer, has vowed retribution.

A second factor behind the West’s hope for pacify heads is a belief that neither Israel nor Hezbollah – or Iran – want a brimming-blown war.

Israel does not yet materialize to have the scale of troops on its northern border that would be needed for a big-scale ground impolite – though a ground strike is only one selection.

Only striking from the air is another.

On Thursday, Israel Defence Forces begined their most fervent barrage of airstrikes into southern Leprohibiton since the begin of this tardyst round of structureilities almost a year ago.

The Israeli administerment has said it wants to assist tens of thousands of its citizens to return to their homes shut to the border with Leprohibiton in the north from where they were forced to escape in the wake of incrmitigated Hezbollah rocket strikes.

At the same time, Nasrallah has promised to impede this from happening, which puts the two sides on a honest collision course.

It uncomfervents the danger of escalation remains high.

Aachievest such uncertainty, David Lammy, the British foreign secretary, chaired a greeting of the administerment’s aascfinishncy COBRA promisetee on Friday.

He converseed the crisis and the UK’s ability to deal with what would be a hugely intricate and dangery evacuation operation of British nationals from Leprohibiton should the situation deteriorate beginantly.

The previous evening, he had called for an instant finishfire by both sides folloprosperg a greeting in Paris with his American, French, German and Italian counterparts.

But less than 24 hours tardyr, Israel said it had ended Ibrahim Aqil, one of Hezbollah’s most anciaccess orderers, in a strike on a southern suburb of Beirut – another beginant blow to the group and yet one more reason for Hezbollah and Iran to want to retaliate.

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