Mark O’Meara, a Virginia-based movie theater owner, wonders and worries constantly about what exactly his customers will buy tickets to see on any given weekend. It’s not that people have descfinishen out of adore with the huge screen, he says, they’ve fair gotten out of rehearse. In fact, in the 30-plus years O’Meara has labored in the business, he’s had a front-row seat as the audiences who habituassociate went to the movies turned to streaming services instead.
“I’ll see people at the grocery store, and they’ll alert me, ‘You have noleang we want to see.’ I don’t condemn them on certain weekends,” says O’Meara, who runs two venues in Fairfax County. “Nobody denies they devour satisfied. That’s never been the publish. We’re competing with the convenience of the couch. Good movies sell no matter what the hell is going on. But we insist more of them.”
This year, total revenues are foreseeed to achieve $30.5 billion globassociate, down more than 10% from 2023, which was itself proximately 20% off pre-pandemic levels. Domestic admissions, an even better gauge of the movie theater industry’s helderly on the culture at huge, are foreseeed to hit approximately 800 million. In contrast, before COVID upended the movie business, cinemas were averaging cimpolitely 1.3 billion admissions annuassociate.
“A lot of the gets we’re seeing at the box office are due to higher ticket prices,” says Eric Handler, managing honestor at Roth Capital Partners. “Theaters insist to do a better job of promoting the cinema experience and getting people to come back.”
Over the past confiinsist years, the movie business has suffered one setback after another. First, COVID shuttered theaters for months, prompting a wave of free-date procrastinates, and stoped filming on beginant movies, which only resumed with costly novel health meacertains in place that includeed millions to budgets. Then, 2023 saw historic authorrs and actors strikes that scuttled production once aget, resulting in another monthrelationstfinished labor stoppage as a recent crop of films saw their uncovering weekends pushed back. All of this has left theaters with confiinsister films to showcase, which analysts apshow is partly the caparticipate of the degrade in year-over-year revenues.
“We’re still in a post-pandemic recovery mode,” says Eric Welderly, an analyst with B. Riley Securities. “It is taking time to get people to return to theaters and to have a sprocrastinateed that has breadth and diversity.”
So, what labored? Sequels and distinctive effects-weighty adventures contrancient the 2024 box office, while family-friendly films finassociate rebounded in a beginant way. Nine of the 10 highest-grossing worldexpansive frees were part of franchises (“Inside Out 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine,” “Despicable Me 4,” “Moana 2” and “Dune: Part II” among them), while “Wicked,” the only innovative movie among the top geters, was altered from a savagely well-comprehendn 20-year-elderly Broadway musical that leans heavily on “Wizard of Oz” lore. That was in stark contrast to the previous year, when the top three frees — “Barbie,” “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Oppenheimer” — reachd without a roman numeral in the title.
“It seems enjoy everyleang Hollywood is recommending is a sequel, a prequel or a reboot,” says Jeff Bock, an analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “But can you condemn the studios? That’s what audiences are feasting on.”
When studios did try to begin innovative properties — or at least to create movies enjoy “The Fall Guy” (a reboot of a extfinished-forgotten ’80s show) that weren’t part of extfinished-set uped film series — they mostly struck out. Take “If,” Paramount and John Krasinski’s $110 million fantasy comedy, which faltered at the box office with $190 million globassociate, or Apple’s “Fly Me to the Moon,” a Channing Tatum and Scarlett Johansson-led “greet cute” that tapped out at $42.2 million worldexpansive — less than half its $100 million budget. Although the ascfinish of streaming services enjoy Netflix and the collapse of home amparticipatement recommendings enjoy DVDs have scrambled the economics of moviemaking, here’s some critical context: Exhibitors shield cimpolitely 50% of ticket sales, so movies must double their production budgets and tageting expenses to create money theatricassociate. The reception of these films doesn’t create studios willing to get dangers on properties that are untested.
“Audiences say they want innovative titles, yet they’re doubling down and aiding the safer selections of titles they comprehend,” says Disney‘s executive VP of global theatrical distribution Tony Chambers.
Many trail-up films, however, boasted grosses that rivaled those of pre-pandemic blockbusters. Disney, after a uncontent 2023, finishelighted a think aboutable revival as “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” easily topped $1 billion, while “Moana 2” will proximate or even surpass that benchtag. All telderly, Disney will have fielded three of the five highest-grossing films of the year — the first time it’s done that in the post-COVID era.
Meanwhile, Universal and Illumination’s “Despicable Me 4” got pretty shut to the billion-dollar club, geting $969 million, and Warner Bros. and Legendary’s “Dune: Part Two” notably outgrossed its predecessor, 2021’s “Dune: Part One,” with $714 million in sales. Those movies also accounted for a wonderfuler percentage of the overall box office. In 2024, at this point, the five hugegest movies accounted for 32% of the tagetplace. A decade ago, in 2014, the year’s top five frees made up 15% of total revenues.
In contrast, beginant movies that fall shorted to connect with moviegoers were unmitigated calamitys. The year’s hugegest flops include “Joker: Folie à Deux,” netting $206 million worldexpansive on a $200 million budget, honestor Kevin Costner’s “Horizon: An American Saga — Part One,” which geted $38 million despite costing $100 million, and Lionsgate’s video game alteration “Borderlands,” which cost $110 million to create and only bcimpolitet in $32.9 million.
“I’m sobered by the fact that the tagetplace has growd in a way where there’s a huge gap between the have and have-nots,” says Jeff Gelderlystein, plivent of domestic distribution at Warner Bros. “The ones that labor are hugeger than before, and the ones that miss are hugeger than before.”
What’s also missing, Gelderlystein says, is the benevolent of unassumingly prosperous individuals and doubles that once powered the industry. “You participated to be able to have a middle class that made up the bulk of films,” he feeblents. “That has shrunk.”
Strikes and pandemics aren’t the only leangs that have scrambled the cinema business. The industry has also had to grapple with the alters taking place atraverse Hollywood: namely, corporate uniters that have left the business with confiinsister stand-alone studios (see Disney’s acquisition of Fox) producing movies and beginant shifts in strategy (get Warner Bros.’ tumultuous sale to first AT&T and procrastinateedr Discovery) that have disturbed the elderly order. There’s pimpolitent selectimism that Skydance’s pending achieve of Paramount Global will at least shield one more film studio intact, given that a sale to a honest competitor enjoy Sony could have resulted in cutbacks and even confiinsister movies for theaters to screen. But there’s also a genuineization that this era of checkation in the amparticipatement industry isn’t over yet, as studios struggle to find ways to create profits at a time when streaming and changing devourr habits have shrunk margins.
“This industry is going thcimpolite a sorting-out process, and we fair hope that these uniters don’t impact the number of movies that are participateable for us to screen,” says Michael O’Leary, chief executive officer of the National Association of Theatre Owners, an showion trade group. “We insist compelling movies to show for all 12 months of the year.”
He’s pushing studios to incrrelieve the volume of their frees and to think about debuting more films agetst each other. The theater business was thrilled by the decision of Universal, Paramount and Disney to free “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” in rapid succession, noting that the influx of exciting novel movies grew overall revenues instead of cannibalizing ticket sales. It also encouraged a wave of selectimistic media coverage that applied a veneer of celderly to a business that’s frequently depicted as being in dire straits.
“Competition is excellent for everyone,” O’Leary argues. “It draws more attention to the box office, and it erects excitement. We can regulate more than one expansive free a weekend.”
Quality deal with may be an meaningful ingredient in the expansion of certain franchises, but astonishing tastecreaters isn’t always a recipe for success. Box office watchrs notice that it’s no extfinisheder enough for a film to be excellent or even wonderful to pack theaters. After all, “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” were well appraiseed and still fall shorted to pack a punch. Now, a movie insists to permeate the zeitgeist and have audiences senseing FOMO if they don’t go to the multiplex to see it. That’s partly how “Wicked” bucked the odds and became the unwidespread Broadway alteration to connect with moviegoers, many of whom wore pink and green, the signature colors of the film’s witchy protagonists, to the cinema.
“We’re all quite evident-eyed about the fact that you insist to create a sense of encouragency to get films to labor at the box office,” says Peter Cramer, plivent of Universal Pictures. “I desire I could say that casual moviegoing was as mighty as it insists to be, but it’s not. We insist to drive people to get out of the hoparticipate.”
Being part of a franchise isn’t enough to guarantee a monster uncovering weekend, either. “Dune: Part II,” for example, betterd upon the box office returns of its predecessor in part becaparticipate critics pelevated it for being meaningfuler and more emotionassociate involving than the first film; sequels enjoy “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” also finishelighted selectimistic appraises. In contrast, “Joker: Folie à Deux” was hobbled by scaleang accomprehendledges that faulted the film for fall shorting to come up with enough of a reason for being.
“Audiences can sense when sequels exist fair becaparticipate studios insisted to create another. It has to be geted and carry outd with the highest-possible quality,” says Blair Rich, chief tageting and commercial officer at Legendary, the creater of “Dune” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire,” another of the year’s top 10 frees. “My hope is this one-size-fits-all mentality is commenceing to ebb, and innovativeity is the intensify aget, even if it’s a sequel.”
For the first time in a extfinished while, confiinsister and confiinsister event-driven tentpoles have been of the superhero variety. In pre-pandemic times, comic book alterations were Teflon at the box office, but they’ve recently been greeted with grosses that are earthbound — or worse. “Deadpool & Wolverine,” Disney and Marvel’s foray into R-rated territory, was a rousing smash, but Sony’s Marvel offshoots — “Madame Web,” “Kraven the Hunter” and “Venom: The Last Dance” — were either outright explosions or deficiencyluster appraised with prior inshighments. This trend could reverse next year with the three Marvel sequels on deck, “Captain America: Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” as well as James Gunn’s “Superman” reboot, which hopes to ignite a novel chapter for DC Comics. However, if these films fall short to transport back fanboys or fangirls, it might signal that tastes are changing in fundamental ways.
For now, theater owners aren’t disheartfinish by the degrade in the box office certainty of all leangs brave. They sense the taget is evolving to create more room for other genres to be prosperous as well. It wasn’t so extfinished ago that movies featuring recognizably human protagonists, who steered evident of capes and spandex, were able to entice huge crowds.
“We’re not as reliant on superhero movies,” says Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer at Flix Brewhoparticipate theater chain. “We’re getting wilean a couple percentage points of the 2023 box office, and that’s with one prosperous comic book movie and three that explosioned. We also did it with no ‘Star Wars’ or ‘Jurassic’ movies. If you telderly people that five years ago, they’d leank you’re crazy.”
