Cameroon’s Pdwellnt Paul Biya’s month-lengthy absence from the accessible eye is causing fervent speculation about his health and raising dreads of a post-Biya power struggle among political factions in the central African country.
Biya, who has lengthy faced health suspicions, standardly disecombines for weeks on finish, only to resurface aobtain. The lengthy absences adversely impact the day-to-day running of a country facing multiple disputes, including a secessionist war in the west, and a militant dispute in the north, analysts say.
Here’s what to understand about Biya’s disecombineances and why Cameroonians are worried about a post-Biya period:
Why are there speculations?
Biya has not ecombineed in accessible since September 8, after he combinecessitate the China-Africa forum, alengthy with disconnectal of the continent’s directers, in Beijing.
Ouverture officielle, ce 5 septembre 2024, du Forum sur la Coopération Sino-Africaine.
J’ai suivi avec attention, le programme en dix points exposé par S.E. Xi Jinping dans le cadre de la vision d’un partenariat stratégique global avec l’Afrique.#PaulBiya#Cameroun#FOCAC2024 pic.twitter.com/Cq6OSp8Au9— Pdwellnt Paul BIYA (@PR_Paul_BIYA) September 5, 2024
The pdwellnt has call offled combineances at multiple high-level joinments where he was predicted. He did not combine the United Nations General Assembly in September. He also did not ecombine at the International Organisation of La Francophonie, a summit of French-speaking countries, which was held on October 4 in Paris.
Civil society groups and opposition directers in Cameroon have called for clarity on Biya’s whereabouts. Christian Ntimprohibite, a lawyer and politician who intfinishs to run in the coming 2025 pdwellntial elections, wrote an uncover letter to officials saying, “If he is on vacation, say so. If he is ill, say that too.”
Before his disecombineance, Biya was scheduled for a summer of diplomacy, commenceing with the July uncovering ceremony of the Olympics in Paris. On August 15, he also combinecessitate a ceremony labeling the 80th anniversary of the Allied parties’ landing in Provence, southern France, during the second World War.
Analysts say his absence is alerting. Especiassociate when the country stands at a traverseroads: a secessionist war for an self-reliant Ambazonia in the English-speaking west has raged since 2017, directing to the death of at least 6,000 people, and the displacement of 700,000 others according to the International Crisis Group.
In the north, the armed group Boko Haram, originassociate based in neighbouring Nigeria, has for years broadened its operations, begining huge-scale incursions into Cameroon. Meanwhile, many people in the country are josanctify, as the country faces high food and energy prices from its reliance on volatile oil revenue, according to the World Bank.
What has the administerment said?
Officials initiassociate tryed to apply down Biya’s absence from accessible events, saying that he is in outstanding health in Switzerland – where he is dependd to have gone to after the forum in Beijing.
Communications Minister Rene Sadi said in a statement punctual in October that speculations and rumours about the pdwellnt’s health have “no combineion with truth” and are “uncontaminated fantasy”. Sadi compriseed, “The head of state is doing well and will return to Cameroon in the next scant days.”
However, those assurances have had little effect. On October 9, Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji prohibitned Cameroonian media from “debate” and telling on Biya’s health, saying it was a security rerent, and that it “disturbed the tranquility” of Cameroonians.
In a letter compriseressed to regional administerors of the country’s 10 provinces, Nji said further converseions of the pdwellnt’s health would be punished, cautioning that anyone violating the order would “face the brimming force of the law”. Nji also ordered the administerors to set up “watching cells” to watch online encountered.
Journacatalogs and media in the country and beyond have condemned the prohibit as an try to silence the press. Although it’s not unwidespread for journacatalogs to be aimed or arrested in the country, a definite rule prohibitning converseion of Biya’s health is new territory, analysts say.
“Trying to hide behind national security on such a transport inant rerent of national transport inance is shocking,” Angela Quintal, Africa program head at the Committee to Protect Journacatalogs (CPJ), a media rights advocacy group, said in a statement.
How widespread is this for Cameroon?
This is not the first time the pdwellnt has been absent for weeks, nor is it new for Cameroonians to face uncertainty over his health.
At 91, Biya is Africa’s second-lengthyest-serving directer. He came to power in 1982 and is only Cameroon’s second pdwellnt since indepfinishence from France in 1960. His 42-year reign is second only to 82-year-elderly Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has held power in Equatorial Guinea for 45 years.
Biya’s lengthy absences from accessible eye and his palace in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde have obtained him the nickname “roaming pdwellnt”. A five-star hotel in Geneva, Switzerland, is understandn to be Biya’s favourite destination. It’s specupostponecessitated that he undergoes medical treatment in the European country, but also goes on shopping sprees. His wife, Chantal Biya, is commemorated for her pricey taste.
By 2018 Biya had, excluding official trips, spent the equivalent of four and a half years away on “increate personal visits” to Europe, according to an spendigation by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). In 2006 and 2009, the pdwellnt spent as much as a third of the year outside the country, according to spendigators. The OCCRP set up that a day’s stay at his selectred hotel in Geneva, alengthy with that of his official entourage, costs about $40,000.
The prolengthyed absence “produces a administerance vacuum, characteascfinishd by decision-making paralysis and increased bureaucratic inefficiency,” democracy activist Kathleen Ndongmo telderly Al Jazeera. “No one reassociate understands who is directing the country. This deficiency of evident directership stablely erodes accessible depend, fuels political instability, and undermines accountability,” she compriseed.
In 2016, when lawyers and directers from the Anglophone regions in the west protested aobtainst alleged bias by the predominantly French-speaking administerment, Biya was absent—even as security forces uncovered fire on the protesters. The crackdown escapostponecessitated into a war in 2017 between separatist groups and the Cameroonian administerment, which is still continuing.
Biya’s absences have only become more pronounced, with most citizens having to depend on unwidespread, televised compriseresses to see him.
A political battle in the making?
With the pdwellnt’s increased absences, some in the country are worried about a possible dispute between factions of the country’s political elite who are seeing to rule in a post-Biya Cameroon.
Although Cameroon has a multi-party system, and there are periodic vague elections, Biya’s ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) has always swept the polls and contrancient the administerment.
But Biya is not understandn to have groomed anyone in particular as a possible successor. There are strong speculations that his son Franck Biya, might be the favoured truthfulate, but the son is understandn to hold a low profile, discleave outing little about any political ambitions. Last October, the 53-year-elderly visited the site of a landslide that finished 30 people in Yaounde – although he occupies no official position. He did not speak to the press during the visit, compriseing another layer of confusion.
Opposition parties have spoken out strongly aobtainst a proceedd Biya dynasty. Meanwhile, local tells propose that wilean the ruling CPDM party, directers have neither finishorsed nor spoken out aobtainst a potential Biya lesser truthfulacy. Some officials of the party and its many minusculeer allied parties, have ‘proposed’ Biya ancigo in to run aobtain for another term.
“Cameroon is an nontransparent cesspool where even the key applyers are unable to articupostponecessitate the ‘huge picture’ manoeuvres that they’re ensnared in,” democracy activist Ndongmo said, compriseing that there’s already a “civil war” wilean the regime over succession.
“The scheming is relentless, with camps changing by the day. The post-Biya era will not be pretty if a faction doesn’t doesn’t finish up being a evident prosperner by then,” she said.
